This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 33rd Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Copper, DXY and SPX.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with a very busy week ahead:
TUESDAY: JOLTS JOB OPENINGS (MAR): (CONSENSUS 7.5M VS PREVIOUS 7.568M)
WEDNESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENTS CHANGE (APR): (CONSENSUS 130K VS PREVIOUS 155K)
WEDNESDAY: US CORE PCE (MOM) (MAR): (CONSENSUS 0.1% VS PREVIOUS 0.4%)
WEDNESDAY: US GDP ANNUALIZED (PREL) (Q1): (CONSENSUS 0.4% VS PREVIOUS 2.4%)
THURSDAY: BANK OF JAPAN INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 0.5% VS PREVIOUS 0.5%)
THURSDAY: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (APR): (CONSENSUS 47.9 VS PREVIOUS 49)
FRIDAY: US NONFARM PAYROLLS (APR): (CONSENSUS 130K VS PREVIOUS 228K)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $94,709
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at BTC/USD on the weekly timeframe, we can see that last week was exceptionally strong for the pair, with price rallying off the weekly open all the way into the weekly close, pushing firmly back above prior range support at $90k, marginally above the yearly open at $93.5k to close the week out closer to $94k. Momentum on this timeframe is very much looking like October 2023 and September 2024 at this point, both of which preceded emergence from the range into price discovery. Whilst I am very much on board with this expectation, I do think it is likely we see a corrective period between now and mid-May before we retest all-time highs, though I am happy to be wrong on this given my long BTC / short Gold position into July. Nonetheless, whilst we did slice back through $90k like butter, I think it is likely we find resistance below $99k into early May and retest at least $90k as reclaimed range support, if not a more brutal shakeout to take out the flat weekly open of last week into $83/84k before continuation higher. This view would be invalidated on a weekly close above $99k this week, where any correction is then likely to be shallower, forcing those on the sideline to chase price into all-time highs - in that scenario I think it is likely we front-run even a $90k retest in early May. All in all, however, much to be positive about going into next month and weekly market structure is now bullish.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that price has been consolidating right around the yearly open for most of the past week, range-bound between $92k as support at $95k as resistance. Daily momentum looks very strong indeed but a correction would be healthy to reset these momentum indicators and open up the next leg higher. A daily close through $95k would likely cause a further squeeze this week into $99k as major resistance, below which I do think it is likely we see a local top form. Close the daily below $92k and I would expect the 200dMA and range support to be retested at $89.4k, where if that gives way we get the deeper correction I spoke about above. The further we push into May (and if we flip $99k as support), the less likely that deeper correction becomes and even those awaiting a $90k retest are likely to be left having to decide between chasing price right into range resistance or potentially missing out on a breakout move with shallow pullbacks - if we do eclipse $99k and then see derivatives begin to overheat, that would be an early signal for that price-chasing that could then lead to a shakeout.
Now, looking for intraweek setups that could be worth paying attention to, given the very busy Wednesday-Friday period, longs want to see solid derisking into month-end on Wednesday, from which we have a more opportune entry for a strong weekly close if consensus expectations are met or beat on growth, inflation and labour market data. Something like a long around $89k pre-PCE looking for the weekend highs to be ran into $96k before NFP Friday (and importantly you'd want to see that $96k high left unswept early this week):
On the short side, we want to see the rally persist into Wednesday, leaving the weekly low untapped and pushing through $96k into $99k on Wednesday, where we could look to short a breakdown on lower timeframes back below that level with the view that we at least tag the weekly low into $92k if not that range between $89k and $90.6k - again we would need to see the weekly low left untapped into Wednesday for this to be more probable and you'd want to be out of the trade before NFP:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
As well as a snapshot of positioning on Velo and CoinGlass:
And finally here are the 1-month and 1-week anticipated liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $1807
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for ETH/USD, we can see that price bounced off support at $1535 last week and managed to close the week back above $1750, which was promising. If this week closes back below that level, breakout longs are trapped and I think next week sees $1535 swept again before the actual reversal into mid-May. If, however, the pair holds above $1750 into next week, we could see continuation into $2077, where there is plenty of overhead resistance. As mentioned last week, whilst we do have some potential upside here, the real test will be in reclaiming that $2158-$2281 range as support; above that and we are all-clear for a huge reversal.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, if you really wanna trade ETH then there is a potential setup here, where we sweep the weekend lows into Weds/Thurs and look to long $1730, with a view to hold that long into $2077 (which I expect to trade quite swiftly despite the trajectory marked out here). You have a hard stop at $1540 but I would cut this very early if we sweep $1747 but then flip that level back into resistance and start pushing deeper towards the hard stop. Longer-term, I think you could look to be long any sweep of $1535 into mid-May or after a reclaim of $2280 with the expectation that ETH does perform well alongside the rest of crypto into June.
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for ETH/BTC, we finally got a decent weekly close, finding support at 0.0175 and closing out at 0.0191, but momentum and structure are obviously still bearish. Nonetheless, ETH bulls should be pleasantly surprised at this price-action, but you really do want to see continuation off this reversal hammer. If we get that this week, that's a good sign for ETH outperformance in May, which would map with my general expectation that alts outperform BTC into July. I am just loathe to expect this of ETH specifically given how atrocious it still looks. Small wins...
Daily:
Looking at the daily, the trajectory mapped out a couple of weeks ago as the more bullish scenario for ETH/BTC is currently playing out pretty tightly, but we should now see 0.019 act as support and the pair push through that momentum trendline resistance with price likely to test 0.0215. If we can then close the daily above that level, turning trendline resistance into support, I think a more meaningful bottom is likely in here for the pair and we continue through 0.023 towards 0.029 over the coming weeks. Flip 0.0187 as resistance here, however, and we take out 0.0175 into the 2019 lows...
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Copper:
Price: $4.86
Weekly
Beginning with the weekly on Copper, firstly let's just take a second to appreciate how ridiculous the past couple of months has been. We saw price reject at $5.40 and trade all the way back into $4.03 in the space of 3 weeks, with price rallying off that support all the way back into $4.90 as of last week. This is as clear a sign as any as to copper demand above $4 in my view, and we should expect continuation of the broader trend higher over the coming months. For now, we are sat at reclaimed resistance but firmly back above that triple top at $4.70. Should we now trade back into $4.70, that would be a nice area to look for longs with the view that price trades back above the 2024 high at $5.17 and confirms the breakout on the next attempt, leading to continuation through $5.40 to fresh yearly highs.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, I have mapped out a very rough trajectory of how this bullish scenario could play out for Copper, with price rejecting here below the confluence of resistance at $4.90 and resetting momentum as price corrects into early May. Some sort of lower timeframe bottoming pattern would then need to play out to trigger long entries around the $4.55-$4.70 range and price would then continue higher through $4.90 into $5.40 as target 1, followed by $5.90 as target 2. We'd need to wait to see how price-action plays out within that correction (assuming we get it) in order to mark out an invalidation, but looking at the chart as it stands flipping $4.55 back into resistance would not be promising and would look like another test of the lows is underway.
DXY:
Price: $99.33
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly view for the Dollar, we saw price retest as low at 97.5 before bouncing last week to close the week green and marginally back above the 30wMA and 2023 low at 99. We played out the entire Trump 2016 fractal in half the time and now that the Dollar has swept multi-year range support and the Economist is printing cover stories about the Dollar demise, I think it is time for a little mean reversion for anyone short dollars into support. Now, to be clear I do not expect a multi-month rally of any significance here - at least not yet. But I do think we see some upside towards the 200wMA to retest some prior support as resistance and squeeze some shorts. Closing the week below last week's low would invalidate this view and lead to further downside into 94.7, if not 93.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that momentum is pressing right up against trendline resistance on daily RSI from the January highs. If we can break out here as price reclaims the 100 handle, that will provide fuel for the squeeze in May, with Dollar likely to be bid up towards 102 from there but remaining capped by trendline resistance from the yearly high. If we do form squeeze into that area, that's where Dollar shorts become favourable again and we likely make one final leg lower below 97 into H2 before the longer-term Dollar bottom is in. If we reject 100 as resistance and push back below 99 from there, that starts to look like it's too early for a short squeeze and we take out the recent lows. Zero reason to be long-term bullish on the Dollar here, however - that will come at some point in H2, in my view.
SPX:
Price: $5511
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly timeframe for SPX, we can see that last week was very strong indeed, finding support at $5100 and rallying all the way into the weekly close at $5518, right up against trendline resistance from the all-time highs and back above key support turned resistance at $5500. If this week sees this momentum continue, we should be retesting $5607 next and $5684 beyond that. If we do squeeze higher but then reject late in the week on the back of some awful data, closing the week back below $5500, then late longs are trapped and we likely move lower from there in early May. My base case remains that the $4800 low is protected during the 90-day tariff pause and it would either take escalation beyond economic measures between US/China or hard data coming out as significantly recessionary to take that low out. I don't think either of those outcomes is likely, so if we do correct from here, the next dip is likely a solid entry for continuation higher, at least into end of Q2 and the pause deadline.
Daily:
Finally, looking at the daily, there are two more probable scenarios I am considering here for US equities for the rest of Q2 - the first sees price reject into early May below the Q2 open at $5607 and then fill the gap into $5282, forming another-higher low and rallying from there back towards at least the 200dMA at $5760, if not the yearly open at $5900; the second is roughly the same but with a deeper correction through $5100 but forming a higher-low above $4800 into mid-May, with a reversal likely from there. I do not think we v-reverse from here throughout May and June right back into new highs without a complete fold on Trump's part on tariffs or somehow a deal being made with China over the coming weeks (even more unlikely than the fold, imo). I think an Adam-and-Eve-shaped bottom is much more likely and that's how I'm looking to play the rest of Q2. I think the entrenched global depression outcome is the least likely of all, which is why I would place a subjective 10% probability on SPX closing the weekly below $4800 and making another leg lower into $4000-$4400 from here the rest of 2025 (similar odds to a US/China deal within the 90-day window).
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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