This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 29th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, DXY and Crude Oil.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with an incredibly busy week ahead:
MONDAY: US CHICAGO PMI (MAR): (CONSENSUS 45.4 VS PREVIOUS 45.5)
TUESDAY: CHINA CAIXIN MANUFACTURING PMI (MAR): (CONSENSUS 51.1 VS PREVIOUS 50.8)
TUESDAY: RBA INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 4.1% VS PREVIOUS 4.1%)
TUESDAY: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (MAR): (CONSENSUS 50.3 VS PREVIOUS 50.3)
WEDNESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (MAR): (CONSENSUS 120K VS PREVIOUS 77K)
THURSDAY: US ISM SERVICES PMI (MAR): (CONSENSUS 53 VS PREVIOUS 53.5)
THURSDAY: US INITIAL JOBLESS CLAIMS: (CONSENSUS 225K VS PREVIOUS 224K)
FRIDAY: US NON-FARM PAYROLLS (MAR): (CONSENSUS 128K VS PREVIOUS 151K)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $81928
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for BTC/USD, we can see that price rejected below prior support turned resistance at $89k as anticipated, pushing lower off that level to close the week at $82.4k, marginally above trendline support from the summer lows. We remain consolidating within the broader range of the capitulation candle and given the volatile week ahead I would not be surprised to see some sort of test of local support here at $78k. If we close the week below that support, then I would expect March 2024 highs to be retested at $73.8k - but base case at present is continued chop above $78k into next week before another attempt at $89k in mid-April. My Q2 bullish bias would be invalidated if we close the weekly back below $74k, as throughout this entire uptrend from the 2022 lows we have not once broken back below the previous range resistance - so that would be a sign that this correction off the highs is unlike the others. $74k is my line in the sand - and if it is protected into the second week of April I think we have a very strong case for the correction to be over, as non-consensus as that currently appears...
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see price is currently chopping around reclaimed support above $81.4k, having rejected above the 200dMA at trendline resistance from all-time highs and prior range support turned resistance, which I mentioned in last week's Outlook was the most likely outcome. I also mentioned we'd return to the $81-82k region to retest it as support - and now we are here I am expecting a little more downside early this week into Wednesday's 'Liberation Day'. If we continue to sell off into Wednesday but hold above the March lows, forming a higher-low, I think we rally into the weekly close. Flipping the March open at $84.3k back into support in early April would make it more probable we break out beyond trendline resistance - a clear signal for a trend shift - from which we retest $89k as resistance. As long as we don't turn that $73.8k prior cycle high and 360dMA into resistance, I am bullish BTC into June.
Now, looking at potential intraweek setups, building on what I mentioned above, for longs you want to see the weekly open at $82.4k continue to cap price early this week and price grind lower through $81.4k, then looking to bid the weekly open flip into Wednesday for a rally back towards at least $85.7k:
On the short side, if we rally into Wednesday, taking out the Sunday high at $83.5k and then break down and flip it back into resistance, I'd look to fade that all the way into $80k:
And here's 3-month annualized basis, which is at Q4 2023 lows:
As well as a snapshot of positioning on Velo and CoinGlass:
And finally here are the 1-month and 1-week anticipated liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $1791
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for ETH/USD, as expected we rejected prior support turned resistance at $2158 and sold off, pushing back into historical support at $1747. Now, despite how ugly this looks, I would not be looking to short support into the 360wMA and - though we are likely to take out this support into that ~$1560 area - I would rather look for some signs of trend exhaustion on lower timeframes followed by a reclaim of $1747 to long for a relief bounce and retest of $2158. This is primarily because R/R is not particularly favourable on the short side given the cluster of support between $1420 and $1747. That all being said, as I mentioned last week, there are much better assets to be looking to trade at present than ETH until we get clear trend exhaustion or a massive capitulation candle into the 2018 high at $1420.
Daily:
Now, looking at the daily, there are some minor signs of trend exhaustion into this support and I have marked out the most bullish possible trajectory for the pair short-term, which would be to take out $1747 early this week into April, mark a higher-low on RSI and AO and then reclaim $1747 and push off from there, at least into $2158 later in April if not retesting the 2024 open and trendline resistance from all-time highs up near $2280. Failing that - and more probable - is at least a retest of mid-$1500s before a bounce. Whilst I am bullish on BTC into Q2, I have seen nothing yet from ETH that makes me think it will outperform during that period if we do get some BTC strength, so again I must mentioned that you're probably best just ignoring ETH short-term.
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at ETH/BTC on the weekly, you can see why I am less keen to be looking for any ETH exposure despite non-consensus expectation for strength in Q2 in BTC. We have broken and closed below historical support at 0.023, pushing into 0.02182, where price is currently sat, with zero major support between here and the 2019 low at 0.01625. Momentum is also still just making fresh lows on this timeframe, which suggests no bottom as of yet for the pair. Simply put, stay away...
Daily:
Turning to the daily, we can see that price is trading cleanly to the downside, flipping prior support as resistance as it trends lower with lower-highs and lower-lows on momentum. That also means it will be pretty clear when this changes: when we see prior support reclaimed and price make higher-highs for once alongside momentum indicators, we likely have a trend shift underway, at least mid-term. Until then, unless you see a specific high R/R play on the Dollar pair, there's really zero upside in concerning yourself with ETH just yet.
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Gold:
Price: $3123
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Gold, we can see that following the close above $3000 it has been on a tear, pushing higher in now-parabolic fashion, somewhat resemblant of the summer 2020 ascent. In fact, looking back at the past decade of price-action in Gold, we saw price run ~100% off the 2016 lows into the 2020 top at $2070, which happened to be the 3.618 extension of that prior multi-year accumulation range; strangely enough, price pushing into ~$3300 here in Q2 2025 would be the 3.618 extension of the 2021/2022 accumulation range and ~100% off the 2022 lows. Something something history rhymes...
We have strong bullish price-action here with weekly momentum to match and I am now expecting continuation in April into that $3280 level that marks the 3.618 fib extension. This would be the next logical place for some sort of local or even mid-term top (or, if history is repeating, a long-term top, though far too early to be projecting that just yet). If we see price dip lower into $3000 in early April, I would long that flip of resistance into support for continuation higher into $3280.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that price is breaking out above channel resistance from the 2024 highs and daily momentum is firmly bullish, supporting the likelihood of continuation here. Until we see this momentum begin to wane, you shouldn't really be fading this (at least not on any higher timeframe). We should see $3056 act as support on any intraweek dip and price then continue through $3130, with $3300 the magnet. This only begins to look bearish structurally on the daily if $3000 is flipped as reclaimed resistance.
Dollar Index:
Price: 103.51
Weekly:
Looking at the Dollar Index on the weekly, we can see how the Dollar continues to consolidate above the 200wMA and around 103.75 as historical resistance. We rejected a move above that level last week after a local bounce, and if price is unable to close back above 103.75 this week I would expect continuation lower to begin pretty sharpish, with 102 as the next support. Ultimately, as I have been saying since the beginning of the year, I fully expect the bottom of the range to be retested at the 100 handle in H1, the forward implications of which would be tailwinds for risk and global growth in H2.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we got that local bounce following trend exhaustion, with the pop into the 360dMA finding resistance. Given the anticipated volatility of this week, it would not surprise me to see one more pop higher here through last week's high into the 200dMA, maybe forming some bearish divergence, leading to continuation lower in April and May into that 100-101 range. Nothing much else to add here for now - 105.5 remains the pivot for mid-term bull/bear.
Crude Oil:
Price: $69.71
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for Oil, we can see that price has been sat on $60 support since 2021, more recently holding above $64 support since Q1 2023. Meanwhile, rallies continue to be capped by trendline resistance, making lower-highs over the course of the past few years, most recently failing at the 200wMA above $76.60. Price has retraced right back into multi-year support and is now turning higher, and given the pattern of the past few years we should expect Oil to continues to push higher from here back into trendline resistance, where it is likely to be slapped back down into $64 once again. Once we get acceptance either side of this tightening range, it would be prudent not to fade it - accept below $60 (turning it into resistance) and we likely trend lower for months; accept above trendline resistance and $76.60 and we likely push into $93 at the very least.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we may have a really nice trade setup here going into April, if we take out local lows into $67.60 as reclaimed support, with invalidation below $64.40 and looking for $72.43 as target #1 and trendline resistance above that at $75 as target #2. Let's see how early April trading plays out but this is something I have my eye on given the strength of the invalidation and the pattern of recent years. Nothing else to add here for Oil.
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
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