This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 25th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, Copper and SPX.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with a pretty busy week ahead:
MONDAY: US ISM MANUFACTURING PMI (FEB): (CONSENSUS 50.8 VS PREVIOUS 50.9)
WEDNESDAY: BOJ GOVERNOR UEDA SPEECH
WEDNESDAY: US ADP EMPLOYMENT CHANGE (FEB): (CONSENSUS 140K VS PREVIOUS 183K)
WEDNESDAY: US ISM SERVICES PMI (FEB): (CONSENSUS 53 VS PREVIOUS 52.8)
THURSDAY: ECB INTEREST RATE DECISION: (CONSENSUS 2.5% VS PREVIOUS 2.75%)
FRIDAY: US NON-FARM PAYROLLS (FEB): (CONSENSUS 133K VS PREVIOUS 143K)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $91,764
Monthly:
Beginning with the monthly for BTC, we can see that February was very weak indeed, selling off basically from the monthly open and closing below the yearly open at $93.3k, pushing as low as $78k. Volume in February was the lowest in recent months, however, and for now Bitcoin is still in a long-term uptrend from the 2022 lows, supported by that trendline. As long as we don't close back below both trendline support and prior all-time highs around $70k, this does look more like a retest than anything more sinister, particularly given that momentum is still not suggestive of significant weakness. Closing March back above the yearly open would be a show of strength, subsequent to which I would expect April to bring fresh highs and continuation through towards $125k+. Closing March below $70k = pack it up we're done for a while. Anything in between those levels is now just a new range within that breakout November range.
Weekly:
Despite the weakness of the monthly close, the weekly closed stronger with the market reacting positively to Trump's strategic crypto reserve announcement. Price managed to reclaim most of the week's downside, pushing off $79k back through multi-month range support at $92k to close the week above $94k. This was quite some strength to witness and notably the first time in a while the market has reacted in such a way to perceived bullish headlines. Nonetheless, I still do not expect a v-reversal off this headline alone, and with the White House Crypto Summit + NFPs on Friday this is likely to be another volatile week. Closing the week back below $92k would negate this range reclaim and we would likely fill in most of the wick to either form a higher-low or take out the low of the wick into prior all-time highs before a longer-term bottom is found. If the market is not disappointed by Friday's announcements and something materially positive emerges - particularly with much of the market currently sidelined - that could lead to something more akin to a v-reversal, where another weekly close above $92k as reclaimed support would validate this entire move as a huge bear trap and subsequently we should expect continuation higher through mid-late March.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see just how wild this past week really was, with price losing range support and trading down from $96k to $78k in the space of five days, wicking below the 200dMA and finding a lot of support in that area before reversing the entirety of the downside move back into $95k on Sunday night. We are still capped by trendline resistance from the all-time highs, as is momentum, so a breakout on both price and momentum leading to a higher-low and higher-high would mark out a sustainable trend shift, particularly if the 2025 open at $93.3k then acts as support over the next week or two. Until then, the probability of v-reversal remains low despite the range reclaim. Rather, we are likely to go retest the $89k support level (and I am also aware there is a CME gap into $86k) early this week and then push higher as anticipation of the crypto summit draws into focus late into the week. Any disappointment undoubtedly leads to most of this reversal being erased and a retest of the 200dMA at $82.5k, where the reaction will tell us whether we're seeing a higher-low form or whether we need to run $78k into the 360dMA, currently sat around prior cycle highs. Anything concretely positive from the summit and I expect any short-term sell the news weakness to be short-lived and price to break that trendline next week, pushing back towards the top of the range in mid-March, particularly so in the context of basically zero positioning in derivatives for that type of move, thus forcing buyers to chase. Let's see what this week ahead brings us...
Now, looking for potential intraweek if/then setups, on the long side you'd obviously look to long a technical pull-back into that $89k area as long as weekend highs remain untapped, expecting continuation through them into Friday, before which you absolutely would look for the exit:
On the short side, you want to see a much shallower pull-back early this week leading to a grind higher throughout the week into Thursday, ideally leaving lots of untapped swing-lows and forming trend exhaustion into that $100k area, where any breakdown on Friday would look like a nice entry to fade most of this reversal back into at least $86k if not $82k:
And here's 3-month annualized basis:
As well as a snapshot of positioning on Velo and CoinGlass, which shows just how sidelined the derivatives market really is right now:
We can even see how many longs got washed out last week and how many shorts opened up above $95k, yet to be taken out:
And finally here are the 1-month and 1-week anticipated liquidation levels:
Ethereum:
Price: $2363
ETH/USD
Monthly:
Looking at ETH/USD on the monthly, this looks significantly worse than BTC on this timeframe, with February having closed firmly through long-term trendline support on marginally higher volume than January, selling off from the open around $3300 into $2158 support, above which it is now sat. This is very ugly to be honest and unless March sees a close back above that trendline and above $2850, confirming this February move as a trap, I think the best case scenario for ETH is further chop. Any move below $2150 opens up $1750 as the next support and price is basically back in the bear market range at that point.
Weekly:
If we look at the weekly, we can see that last week's capitulation did finally send ETH firmly through the bottom of the 455-day range support, wicking beneath all those untapped lows before reversing much of the sell-off on the weekend to close above the 200wMA at $2476. This is more promising than the monthly timeframe and ETH bulls absolutely want to see the 2024 open at $2281 act as support this week, confirming the bottom of this range remains firm following that capitulation wick. From there, ETH needs to see a weekly close above $2850 to look more constructive for further upside. Close the weekly below $2158 and lose this long-term range and it's very much cooked, with the 360wMA at $1580 likely to be retested.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see that momentum has marginally broke out of its downtrend from December, but we need to see this shift in momentum be validated by price-action, where again we need that $2850 level reclaimed as support for this to really look like a solid long-term bottom. A close above $2850 turns daily structure bullish, flipping the swing-high that preceded this capitulation lower through the bottom of the range into $2077 last week. For this week, you'd want to see $2280 form a higher-low and price push into $2705 from there, with the expectation that a higher-low needs to form post-Friday for this to remain likely as a bottoming pattern. If ETH can get through this week without closing below the March open at $2236, that's a good start. Ultimately, the highest probability longs are gonna present themselves when this gets back above $2850, and the highest probability shorts when the bottom of this range is flipped as resistance - so not much to be done until either of those...
ETH/BTC
Monthly:
Looking at ETH/BTC on the monthly, February closed weak, as we expected, holding above 0.023 historical support but remaining capped by 0.0319 as resistance. At present, I'm considering two scenarios for the pair: a wick below 0.023 that reverses and leads to a green close for March, subsequent to which we are likely to see some upside; or price holding above 0.023 and closing March firmly back above the February high at 0.032. Unless either of those occurs, this doesn't really look like where you want to be allocated, particularly when we look at the Dollar pair for confluence. A monthly close below 0.023 would obviously be disastrous for ETH and you're then looking at 0.016 as the next support.
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly, we can see that again there is nothing yet to be remotely excited by - momentum is still capped and price retested support at 0.03 as resistance and rejected. You need to see a higher-low form here above 0.023 and price to then close back above 0.03 for structure to begin to look more promising, but even then you've got trendline resistance above that to contend with. Looking at this, I return to the monthly levels, where acceptance back above 0.0319 looks much more favourable, particularly if that is met with a higher-high on RSI, or you bid the reclaim after a wick below 0.023.
Daily:
Finally, looking at the daily, momentum is very choppy here and though we did get a marginal breakout it was swiftly invalidated as price broke below support and flipped it as local resistance at 0.027, which is capping price early this week. There was a lot of volume on yesterday's price-action, so closing below yesterday's open around 0.025 would be quite bearish for ETH/BTC and I'd then expect a deeper retracement towards the bottom of the wick. If the pair can hold above the weekend support and then close the daily above 0.027, that is a decent start to marking out this area as the higher-low following the capitulation wick. Nonetheless, structure is still bearish and you'd need to see 0.03 flipped as support to change that...
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Gold:
Price: $2864
Monthly:
Beginning with the monthly view for Gold, we can see that price closed February at fresh all-time highs, above prior highs at $2795, rallying into $2956. We have some signs of early weakness up here as momentum is beginning to diverge, but it remains too early to think about major tops on this timeframe, in my view. If March closes back below $2795, that would validate the monthly bearish divergence and we would then likely see a larger corrective structure play out from April onwards. For now, if $2795 continues to act as support, it is likely Gold tests the $3000 level in March.
Weekly:
Now, looking at the weekly, we have a few further signs of weakness and the potential trajectory I marked out last week has seen its first move play out. I do still expect $3000 to be tagged, and perhaps the next move above $2956 marks out a deviation with some sort of trend exhaustion on this timeframe to confirm a higher probability of a mid-term top. This view is obviously invalidated on any acceptance above $3000 with a fresh high on weekly RSI confirming the trend. If we do reject over the coming weeks and begin to break down, a weekly close below 2024 trendline support and back inside prior highs at $2795 would potentially lead to $2535 being retested, though we would need to see what the reaction was around $2727, as any acceptance below that level would make it more probable that the deeper correction is underway. I do ultimately expect continuation of this trend higher at any rate through 2025.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see how a less severe correction might play out, with daily momentum having broken down and price now losing local trendline support. If we now reject below $2950 this week and turn that trendline into resistance, I think it is likely we trade into prior highs sometime in March. If we can then mark out some sort of bottoming structure around those prior highs with momentum reset, that would look like enough for continuation higher through $3000 either late March or early April.
Copper:
Price: $4.55
Monthly:
Beginning with the monthly for Copper, we can see that February closed strong, bouncing off resistance turned support at $4.32 to push into reclaimed resistance at $4.90, before closing the month near $4.60. I would expect to see some sort of pull-back from here in March towards $4.37 t mark out a higher-low within the February range before continuation through this key resistance around $4.60-4.70 into fresh highs beyond $5.17 in Q2. Unless we close below $4.05, this is bullish structure and a long-term uptrend and dips are for buying...
Weekly:
Turning to the weekly timeframe, we have weekly bullish structure with momentum making higher-highs and lows to confirm the trend, but we are finding a lot of resistance in this $4.60-4.70 range as we did much of last year. Any acceptance above $4.70 is likely the catalyst for the next major leg higher (reject -> reject -> reject -> accept -> teleport). For now, however, I do think we take out last week's low and grind towards major support above $4.37 to mark out the monthly low before attempting another breakout beyond key resistance. That is where I will be looking to add back the partial Copper positioning I offloaded on the February rally (as I mentioned on X). I still currently have about 70% of my original long from range lows but I would like to up that back to 100% if I see a higher-low structure form above $4.37. My view remains that we trade above the 2024 highs in H1 2025.
Daily:
On the daily, I have marked out what this might look like, with some sort of trend exhaustion leading to a trendline breakout and daily bullish structure, with $4.55 being flipped as support and a subsequent higher-low. I would be looking to be a bit more aggressive than this on the entry, however, ideally buying closer to $4.40 in the anticipation of a reversal, such is my conviction in this trend. On this timeframe, nothing becomes too concerning for mid-term bullishness unless we close back below $4.25.
SPX:
Price: $5955
Monthly:
Beginning with the monthly for SPX, it's pretty clear we remain ion a long-term uptrend since the 2022 lows, with more recent price-action being choppy into the highs post-Trump election. Nonetheless, the monthly trend is still pointing higher, both from a price and momentum POV. February wicked above the prior highs and rejected to close around $5950 and I would expect the Feb lows to be taken out before any meaningful continuation of the trend through to price discovery. Unless we close the monthly below $5660 and below the trend on monthly RSI, nothing particularly concerning here for the mid-term outlook.
Weekly:
Looking now at the weekly, we do have multiple bearish divergences here as price has pushed higher through 2024, but there has been little to no follow through on any of them, with momentum continuing to be supported above the weekly 50 RSI - that does not suggest massive weakness but rather undecidedness in my view. And this is effectively what we are seeing - a more pronounced period of chop within a strong bull trend. Now, this can turn into some sort of capitulation event is momentum gives way, so if we see weekly structure turn bearish with a close below the 2025 low at $5776 and weekly RSI close firmly below 50, that would make it much more probable that we get a deeper correction through $5660 likely into that next trendline below above $5300. Until then, this remains consolidation within a bull market and as I've shown on other assets these momentum divergences are more likely to be invalidated in strong trends. In that scenario, we see weekly RSI close above trendline resistance as price closes above all-time highs at $6135 - this would confirm continuation of the trend likely for months to come.
Daily:
On the daily, I have marked out the trajectory I expect to play out over the rest of H1, where we take out the January lows into the 200dMA and then reclaim the January low, which would be my long entry with invalidation on a close below the 200dMA. From there, I expect price to continue to fresh highs in Q2 and beyond. Nothing much else to add here for now...
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
Oh, and if you've not tried out trading Real-World Assets on Ostium yet, you can now do soherewith the launch of their public mainnet.
