This blog references an opinion and is for entertainment and informational purposes only. It is not intended to be investment advice. Seek a duly licensed professional for investment advice.
In this 24th Market Outlook here at Ostium Research, we'll be taking a look at the week ahead in markets, focusing specifically on price-action, positioning and event risk for Bitcoin, Ethereum, Gold, the Dollar Index and altcoins, via OTHERS.
Firstly, let's take a look at the calendar, with a relatively light start to the week until Wednesday's NVIDIA earnings:
WEDNESDAY: US NEW HOME SALES CHANGE (MOM) (JAN): (CONSENSUS N/A VS PREVIOUS 3.6%)
WEDNESDAY: NVDA EARNINGS
THURSDAY: US DURABLE GOODS ORDERS (JAN): (CONSENSUS 1.3% VS PREVIOUS -2.2%)
THURSDAY: US GDP ANNUALIZED (Q4): (CONSENSUS 2.3% VS PREVIOUS 2.3%)
FRIDAY: US CORE PCE (MOM) (JAN): (CONSENSUS 0.3% VS PREVIOUS 0.2%)
Now, let's dig into asset-specific price-action for the week ahead, looking firstly at Bitcoin:
Bitcoin:
Price: $95,589
Weekly:
If we begin by looking at the weekly for BTC/USD, we can see that last week traded within another tight range, though this time taking out both sides of the prior inside week before closing marginally in the green on slightly higher volume. The plan remains the same here whilst volatility continues to compress: a weekly close above $99k = price trading into the top of the range to retest all-time highs below $110k; whereas a weekly close below $92k opens up a much larger correction into the 80s. Beyond that, there is nothing much to add on this timeframe, besides the fact that we do appear to be very close to a decisive break of this multi-week chop between $93.3k and $99k, and I would not be looking to fade acceptance below the yearly open or above the $99k level.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see this indecisive chop all of February much more clearly, with $99k continuing to act as resistance as price just takes out wick after wick below into yearly open demand. Last week saw another rejection at that resistance and price is once again trading in the middle of this range within a range. You really should not be taking any trades around this level, rather awaiting price to trade the extremes if you're looking for intraweek plays. Momentum is, as you would imagine, flat here. If we see a daily close above $99k and that level then act as support the subsequent day, that's your sign for upside continuation; likewise, a daily close below the yearly open, with $93.3k acting as resistance the subsequent day, and it is very likely the weekly closes red and we violently break to the downside, likely trading towards the 200dMA at $81.5k.
Looking at intraweek setups, if we take out the Friday low and v-reverse back above the weekly open early this week, I think that looks good for a strong weekly and monthly close back into the February high, with invalidation on a close below $93.3k:
On the short side, grinding higher early this week leaving the Friday low untapped, then wicking above the $99.4k high and rejecting = short at local range highs for a reversion back into the yearly open and likely much lower in that scenario, adding on acceptance back below $96.3k. If we close February below the yearly open, that's a pretty bleak signal for March:
Interestingly, 3-month annualized basis is now back at levels unseen since October 2023:
Whilst we can see that all the February positioning has been washed out after last week:
And finally here are the anticipated 1-week and 1-month liquidation levels, which could act as a magnet should price trade towards them:
Ethereum:
Price: $2712
ETH/USD
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for ETH/USD, we can see that price closed the week strong, pushing off the Q4 2024 open at $2600 to close the week at weekly highs just shy of major support turned resistance at $2850; this, despite the largest nominal hack in crypto history to the tune of $1.4bn in ETH on Friday. This week's price-action will be key to determine whether the post-hack bounce will be short-lived or whether this has potential to mark a major bottom for ETH/USD. Close the weekly above $2850 and I think those expecting a deeper backfill of the wick will be left disappointed and having to chase price higher, with $3050 as the next resistance beyond that. Whilst price holds above $2600, I think downside expectations should be tempered; if we close the weekly below $2600, I think this fills in most of that wick all the way back into the 2024 open at $2280.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see something of a potential bear flag-esque pattern emerging, which is something to be aware of should price now break lower from ere to close back below $2600, where you could then conceivably look for short entries with $2850 as invalidation and $2280 as a target, though risk/reward wouldn't be particularly attractive. We do have a momentum breakout here on the daily but it is not exactly convincing as of yet. If $2705 acts as support this week and price then pushes higher to close above $2850, that would be the first sign of promise that this momentum breakout has legs for a sustained reversal, with acceptance above $3050 obviously the clearest signal as to where this wants to trade. Nothing else to add here for now, but potentially a huge 7-10 days ahead for ETH...
ETH/BTC
Weekly:
Looking at ETH/BTC on the weekly, we can see hat last week found support at 0.02725 and pushed higher, closing the week just shy of support turned resistance at 0.03. It is imperative for ETH bulls that 0.02725 now acts as support this week, as a close below that level confirms 0.03 as a bearish retest of a major level, from which we are more likely to go and fill in a lot of that wick. If it does act as support and we get a close above 0.03, that's a clean signal for a retest of 0.0319 at the very least, where acceptance above that level looks like a cycle low to me.
Daily:
Turning now to the daily, we can see a marginal momentum breakout with daily structure starting to print higher-highs and lows but whilst we remain below the swing-high that preceded the capitulation wick, I am cautious - that is, once we accept above 0.0319, it is pretty clear the lows are in and it becomes much more probable that we trade towards the 200dMA from there, where reclaimed resistance is sat at 0.0365 (at the very least). Close the daily below 0.027 and I think we trade back into 0.024, filling in most of that wick before potentially forming a higher-low.
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Gold:
Price: $2943
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly, we can see that last week closed strong but price remains capped short-term below $2950, with the major overhead resistance at $3000. Momentum is still looking strong, so any weekly close above $2950 this week into $3000 and we likely keep squeezing into literal uncharted territory. Now, for the gold bears, what you want to see this week is a deviation of the all-time highs towards $3000 and a strong rejection and close back below $2950, which would then look like a swing-high from which I think it is likely we correct back towards $2700. Until we see that deviation and rejection, you should only be looking for longs.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see that last week gave us a momentum breakdown with price losing its multi-month trend on RSI, and now we have price grinding higher with momentum not playing ball. This - as often occurs in bull trends - can be swiftly invalidated if we accept above $2950 and daily RSI closes back above that trendline. If, however, we reject up here, with price breaking below $2890 and daily RSI making a lower-low below last week's low, that's significant confluence for the mid-term top scenario outlined above.
Dollar Index:
Price: $106.14
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly view for DXY, we can see that the Trump 2017 fractal is continuing to play out roughly as anticipated, and price is headed towards that multi-year range high retest at 105.5. From here, whilst some limited downside into that level is expected, I do think we're coming towards the point at which we see some demand step in for the dollar before ultimately leading to a lower-high below the 2025 open at 108.2 and continuation back inside the range in March going into Q2. This view will only change if the Dollar flips the yearly open as support.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see how both structure and momentum continue to look bearish and price is playing out the trajectory highlighted a couple of weeks ago, but as mentioned above we are now trading back into resistance turned support. Whilst I do not expect us to trade back inside the range on the first attempt, the more bearish scenario for the Dollar (versus demand stepping in for a bounce) would be for price to now just chop around between 105.5 and 107 for the next couple of weeks before closing back inside 105.5 as reclaimed resistance. The more sustained bounce into a lower-high scenario becomes probable if we see daily momentum break out back above 50 as DXY closes above 107; in that scenario, I think we retest 108.2 from below as resistance in early March.
Others:
Price: $258.8bn
OTHERS/USD
Weekly:
Looking at the weekly for OTHERS, we can see that alts continue to chop versus the Dollar, holding above resistance turned support at $237bn but failing to break back above $280bn as resistance. We also remain capped by trendline resistance from the December highs, and the parabola is not looking supportive. As such, I think this next week or two is critical for OTHERS: close above $280bn on the weekly and I think things look significantly more constructive for a near-term reversal; continue to hold below resistance into March and I will likely cut the alts I bought post-liquidation event over the past ~10 days and await a clearer signal.
Weekly 2:
Looking at this alternative view for OTHERS, we can see here Global M2 / Global GDP, as well as central bank balance sheets excluding the 'Big 4' (Fed, PBoC, BoJ and ECB). We can see that both measures appear to be bottoming out, with the former having put in a higher-low after chopping around cyclical lows since 2022. The YoY rate of change for Global M2 minus Global GDP also only just flipped firmly green a few weeks ago, with this measure having been in the red since 2022. For those who have read my longer-form articles, you will know that it is my view that for alts to outperform Bitcoin more broadly, you need Global M2 growth to outpace Global GDP growth. If this is not a false signal and the 3-month and 6-month forward outlook is that central banks ex. 'Big 4' can now expand their balance sheets and Global M2 will sustainably trend higher vs Global GDP, I think it is very probable that altcoins outperform BTC during that period too. In terms of my tactical positioning from the last 10 days, I would look to cut this as mentioned above and reallocate when clearer price-action emerges, but the 'surplus dollar' backdrop looks more supportive for the remainder of 2025 than it has done over the past three years.
Daily:
Looking at the daily, we can see how the 200dMA and 360dMA are now acting as resistance, providing further confluence for the likelihood that I will need to cut recent positioning and await a better entry. If we close the daily below last week's lows and flip them as resistance, then I will be exiting the alts I bought over the past 10 days and either awaiting a deeper backfill of the wick or acceptance back above $280bn before reallocating. Because of the reasons outlined above, I do not expect the most bearish scenario (highlighted in the chart) to play out, trading back into 2024 lows around $180bn. Nonetheless, if we cannot form bullish daily structure and we lose the bottom of that wick, that's the next logical place for OTHERS to trade into and that may be where I look for allocation. To be clear, given my expectations for Global M2 / Global GDP for the rest of 2025, I am actively looking for reasons to be allocated to alts, but I need to see price-action confirming this view or another mass liquidation event that provides too good of an opportunity not to allocate. This is all under the assumption that last week's lows give way and act as resistance going into March; if, however, we continue to find support above those lows and OTHERS reclaims $280bn and the 200/360dMA as support, then I will obviously not cut my recent positioning and would rather look to add.
OTHERS/BTC
Weekly:
Beginning with the weekly for OTHERS/BTC, effectively the same outlook applies here to the one highlighted above for OTHERS: we are now sat chopping around below historical support (now acting as resistance) at ~3m BTC, with the 2024 low at 2.82mn BTC potentially also flipping as resistance. If this week closes below 2.7mn BTC, where it is currently sat, from a price-action perspective that looks like alts want continuation to the downside vs BTC and I would not want to be holding them given we have no real technical support below. Conversely, if this early week sell-off is a bear trap and OTHERS/BTC can push higher into the weekly close, closing back above 2.82mn BTC, that starts to look much more promising, with acceptance back above 3mn BTC as the clear signal for a reversal, at which point I would want to add alt exposure. Keeping it simple here...
Weekly 2:
I won't rehash the points made about the forward outlook for surplus dollars in the global financial system for the remainder of 2025 but if you look at these measures mapped vs OTHERS/BTC, it's pretty clear to see that when the trend is contraction, alts underperform BTC en-masse, and vice-versa.
Daily:
Lastly, looking at the daily, we can see how acceptance on the daily below 2.63mn BTC would look like confirmation of bearish structure following a retest of 2024 lows as resistance, which would be a signal to cut exposure until more constructive signs appear. Conversely, holding above this area this week and flipping 3mn BTC as reclaimed support (alongside some sort of trendline breakout) would be very promising. So far, the bearish side is winning this from a price-action POV...
I hope you've found some value in the read this week!
Oh, and if you've not tried out trading Real-World Assets on Ostium yet, you can now do soherewith the launch of their public mainnet.
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